The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HPFA) is composed of film journalists from all around the world who cover the United States film industry. I'm convinced that none of these people actually saw The Tourist, because it seems impossible for such a box office & critical bomb to land any type of nomination other than a Razzie. And Burlesque? Alice in Wonderland? Come on. The HPFA's seeming lack of credibility speaks for itself most years, but somehow they continue to produce a highly watched awards ceremony. I suppose it does make for a decent Oscar dress rehearsal.
Anyway, it looks like i'm going to have to take into account the HPFA's tendency to recognize middlebrow entertainment. I'm also going to assume that The King's Speech will fare better than The Social Network here, as foreign voters will probably really go for the british royalty shtick.
Here's my attempt at predicting this mess:
Best Motion Picture - Drama
The King's Speech
(Alternate: The Social Network)
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Kids are All Right
(Alternate: Alice in Wonderland)
Best Actor - Drama
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
(Alternate: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter)
Best Actress - Drama
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
(Alternate: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole)
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
(Alternate: Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack)
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
(Alternate: Emma Stone, Easy A)
Best Supporting Actor
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
(Alternate: Christian Bale, The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
(Alternate: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Best Director
David Fincher, The Social Network
(Alternate: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech)
Best Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
(Alternate: David Seidler, The King's Speech)
Best Animated Film
Toy Story 3
(Alternate: Tangled)
Best Original Score
Danny Elfman, Alice in Wonderland
(Alternate: Hans Zimmer, Inception)
Expect to see Season of the Witch nominated for 'Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy' next year.
...Yes, i'm kidding. I think.
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