Post-Golden Globes & Critics' Choice Oscar Predictions

                                                            Photo: Film Linc

The Social Network pretty much cleaned house this weekend at the Critics' Choice Awards and Golden Globes. It's getting to be a little absurd, actually, as this film has dominated nearly every substantial awards ceremony thus far. Have voters been succumbing to groupthink? Or is the film just simply that good? I would say that it might be a combination of the two.

But anyway, we have a pretty good idea of who's a likely winner in most of the major Oscar categories, as a general consensus seems to have been reached. But there could still be a few surprises as far as nominations go, so I'm at least hoping for that.

My predictions after the jump...

Best Picture:
  1. The Social Network: I don't really think I'm going out on a limb here, although I guess it is due for a loss, or something...
  2. The Fighter: Some major acting wins this weekend; Christian Bale and Melissa Leo are clear favorites in their respective categories, and a SAG (Screen Actors Guild) win for Best Ensemble Cast seems imminent. If the Actors Branch of the Academy favor this one (and I think they will), look for it to be a major vote-getter
  3. Inception: This one fared extremely well at the BFCA's Critics' Choice Awards, gathering four wins in major technical categories. It's buzz has not faded whatsoever, as it seems to have even gained a little momentum since awards season really kicked into gear. It could be favored by some in many of the technical branches of the Academy (Cinematographers, Visual Effects, Editors, Art Directors) and could certainly land up to ten nominations. Nolan's 2009 Dark Knight snub will be in the back of voters' minds, and the Academy loves mammoth box office numbers ($290 million I believe)
  4. The King's Speech: People seemed to have been anticipating a lot more success for this one due to its subject matter. Maybe voters are making self-conscious decisions to steer clear of any criticism. It's best chances at winning a major award was at the Golden Globes, but the HFPA went with The Social Network. Besides a few sporadic, insubstantial wins, this one has largely under-achieved. It will still finish high, but it doesn't seem to be the threat that many claimed it was.
  5. Black Swan: A divisive genre film, but also a masterful work that simply cannot be ignored by voters. It seems to have a strong core following.
  6. The Kids Are All Right: Could be another favorite of the Actors branch, and success at the Globes will keep it fresh in the minds of voters.
  7. True Grit: A box-office and critical powerhouse, but lacking severely in any significant awards. It's struggling to even get any substantial nominations. In terms of Oscar buzz, it's all talk and little action, though appealing to many of the Academy branches will help to score it a nomination.
  8. Toy Story 3: Most will want this to be nominated, but it will lack the necessary amount of high votes to put it in the top tier.
  9. 127 Hours: Poor box-office receipts and voters' hesitancy to see this one greatly diminish its chances of being one of the top elite (it once was considered a possible spoiler) but a strong core following and guild support should ensure it a nomination.
  10. The Town: A bubble film if there ever was one. It's liked, but not loved.
Alternates: Blue Valentine, Winter's Bone, Another Year, The Ghost Writer, Somewhere

Best Director:
  1. David Fincher, The Social Network
  2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
  3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
  4. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
  5. David O. Russell, The Fighter
Alternates: Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Best Actor:
  1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
  2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
  3. James Franco, 127 Hours
  4. Robert Duvall, Get Low
  5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Alternates: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

Best Actress:
  1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
  2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
  3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
  4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
  5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Alternates: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Lesley Manville (Another Year)

Best Supporting Actor:
  1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
  2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
  3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
  4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
  5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Alternates: Matt Damon (True Grit), Jeremy Renner (The Town)

Best Supporting Actress:
  1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
  2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
  3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
  4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
  5. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Alternates: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan), Marion Cotillard (Inception)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
  1. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
  2. Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
  3. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
  4. Ben Affleck, Aaron Stockard & Peter Craig, The Town
  5. Debra Granik & Anne Rossellini, Winter's Bone
Alternates: Laeta Kalogridis (Shutter Island), Glenn Ficarra & John Requa (I Love You Phillip Morris)

Best Original Screenplay:
  1. Christopher Nolan, Inception
  2. David Seidler, The King's Speech
  3. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz & John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
  4. Stuart Blumberg & Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
  5. Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, The Fighter
Alternates: Mike Leigh (Another Year), Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)

Best Cinematography:
  1. Roger Deakins, True Grit
  2. Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
  3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
  4. Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
  5. Anthony Dod Mantle & Enrique Chediak, 127 Hours
Alternates: Jeff Crononweth (The Social Network), Robert Richardson (Shutter Island)

Best Editing:
  1. Lee Smith, Inception
  2. Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
  3. Jon Harris, 127 Hours
  4. Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan
  5. Pamela Martin, The Fighter
Alternates: Roderick Jaynes (True Grit), Tariq Anwar (The King's Speech)

Best Score:
  1. Hans Zimmer, Inception
  2. Carter Burwell, True Grit
  3. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, The Social Network
  4. Clint Mansell, Black Swan
  5. Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Alternates: A.R. Rahman (127 Hours), Danny Elfman (Alice in Wonderland)

More category predictions to come at a later date...

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