Golden Globes Predictions

                                                                  Photo: Next Movie


The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HPFA) is composed of film journalists from all around the world who cover the United States film industry. I'm convinced that none of these people actually saw The Tourist, because it seems impossible for such a box office & critical bomb to land any type of nomination other than a Razzie. And Burlesque? Alice in Wonderland? Come on. The HPFA's seeming lack of credibility speaks for itself most years, but somehow they continue to produce a highly watched awards ceremony. I suppose it does make for a decent Oscar dress rehearsal.

Anyway, it looks like i'm going to have to take into account the HPFA's tendency to recognize middlebrow entertainment. I'm also going to assume that The King's Speech will fare better than The Social Network here, as foreign voters will probably really go for the british royalty shtick.

BFCA Critics' Choice Awards Predictions

The BFCA's 16th annual Critics' Choice Awards airs this Friday evening, representing the first of a string of televised award ceremonies all leading up to the Academy Awards in late February. Though this one has a tendency to slip under the radar a bit, it's important to note that it does hold some weight as a credible and foretelling awards ceremony. Being the first televised awards show of the season, it has a chance to really set the tone for the remaining heavyweights (Golden Globes, SAGs, etc.).

The Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) is comprised of approximately 250 television, radio and online critics, making it the largest film critic organization in the United States. Unlike the AMPAS (Oscar voters), the BFCA is run by professional journalists who are obligated—and paid to—see every film that has a real chance of contention each year. And although the Academy is comprised of some of the most prestigious industry professionals, it's important to realize that these people simply do not get a chance to see every film each year. Also, since many Academy members are Hollywood insiders, it's possible for some bias and favoritism to skew voting results. Of course, this can also be true of the BFCA, but i'm thinking that it's probably much less of an issue. Critics are journalists, and they are expected to remain professional, critical, and as objective as possible.

Also, the BFCA didn't nominate The Tourist in any category this year, which automatically gives it more credibility than the Hollywood Foreign Press.

My predictions after the jump...