Oscar Talk: Final Predictions, PGA Implications, My Wish List & Preferential Vote Tallying

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) awarded The King's Speech over The Social Network last week, leaving a glimmer of hope for Firth, Hooper, the Weinsteins & Co., but probably not enough to start predicting a Best Picture spoiler... yet. A DGA (Directors Guild of America) upset would be a much more reassuring victory for The King's Speech, but the small bit of momentum it carries is probably too little, too late. It is interesting, however, that the PGA awarded The King's Speech, because I also feel that The Fighter is likely to win the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Best Ensemble award, which carries significance in its own right. One would think that The Social Network's dominance would be reflected in a sweep of the major guilds, but that doesn't seem to be happening. The DGA winner will be announced on Saturday, January 29. The Screen Actors Guild Awards will air on Sunday, January 30, and I believe you can catch that on TBS.

Oscar nominations are set to be announced tomorrow morning at 5:30 AM PT (8:30 AM ET). There will surely be a few snubs and surprises, as there always are, but I've got a feeling that consensus thinking is really going to leave its mark this year. The build-up towards nominations is probably as exciting as it gets for awards season, as there's always that glimmer of hope for movies that you'd really like to see make the cut.

Here's a list of some underdogs that I'd like to see grab a surprise nomination tomorrow morning...

• 127 Hour's Danny Boyle for Best Director
• The Ghost Writer for Best Picture
• Biutiful's Javier Bardem for Best Actor
• Shutter Island's Leonardo Dicaprio for Best Actor
• Easy A's Emma Stone for Best Actress
• Conviction's Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor
• The Ghost Writer for Best Adapted Screenplay
• Greenberg for Best Original Screenplay
• Winter's Bone for Cinematography

Final Predictions in major categories after the jump...

BFCA Critics' Choice Awards Predictions

The BFCA's 16th annual Critics' Choice Awards airs this Friday evening, representing the first of a string of televised award ceremonies all leading up to the Academy Awards in late February. Though this one has a tendency to slip under the radar a bit, it's important to note that it does hold some weight as a credible and foretelling awards ceremony. Being the first televised awards show of the season, it has a chance to really set the tone for the remaining heavyweights (Golden Globes, SAGs, etc.).

The Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) is comprised of approximately 250 television, radio and online critics, making it the largest film critic organization in the United States. Unlike the AMPAS (Oscar voters), the BFCA is run by professional journalists who are obligated—and paid to—see every film that has a real chance of contention each year. And although the Academy is comprised of some of the most prestigious industry professionals, it's important to realize that these people simply do not get a chance to see every film each year. Also, since many Academy members are Hollywood insiders, it's possible for some bias and favoritism to skew voting results. Of course, this can also be true of the BFCA, but i'm thinking that it's probably much less of an issue. Critics are journalists, and they are expected to remain professional, critical, and as objective as possible.

Also, the BFCA didn't nominate The Tourist in any category this year, which automatically gives it more credibility than the Hollywood Foreign Press.

My predictions after the jump...

Directors Guild Nominees: 2011

This morning, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) announced their five nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film for 2010. For those who aren't aware, the DGA is a film and television labor union specializing in the interest of directors in the United States motion picture industry. This group is comprised of thousands of directors working in the film and television industry, including many big-name Hollywood directors and an overwhelming abundance of commercial & television directors. The DGA has been around since 1936, and this year marks the 75th anniversary of their annual awards ceremony.

To put this into some perspective, the DGA nominees are regarded by most Oscar pundits to be the biggest indicator of who and what films the AMPAS (Academy of Motion Picture Arts/Sciences, or simply Oscar voters) will recognize in the fields of Best Picture and Best Achievement in Direction. Historically, the AMPAS tends to mimic the DGA in their selections more so than any other guild, critics group, association, etc. In fact, over the years, DGA award winners have lined up with AMPAS directorial winners AND best picture winners at an astounding percentage (that of which I can't recall specifically, but i'm fairly positive that it's at least over 75%).

Both the DGA and AMPAS are comprised of industry professionals, though unlike the AMPAS, the DGA does not recieve DVD screeners from studios and distributors. This makes it a little less likely for small indie films to be recognized by the DGA, as voters might not get a chance to catch some of those films in theaters due to inadequate distribution.

More after the jump...